Future Projections and Predictions – Transportation

By November 2, 2017 No Comments

Where are we going to be in 2030, what does it mean for you, and how can you make money investing in the future? I am doing a series of predictions and projections in numerous industries. These are my views and how I personally see the industries going in the future.

Here are a few of my thoughts about Transportation:

1. Driving will be against the law.

  • Electric Vehicles will displace all other vehicles by 2025. Full production on electric vehicles is coming by 2020 by all major automakers.  Porsche just announced a 600hp equivalent $85,000 all electric dual motor absolute specimen o f a vehicle.
    • Some people believe that this is going to mean the death of oil. It will.
    • Some people believe that this is going to mean the death of automobile service. Internal combustion engines have some 2000 moving parts. Electric vehicles have less than 200.  The latest tests on Tesla’s Model S shows the battery life will go at least 500,000 miles without needing replacement, and many argue that they will go to 1,000,000.
    • Some people believe that ride sharing is inevitable where large automakers will provide on demand automobiles and individual auto ownership will die. I agree that some of this will happen, but also, human’s like to own stuff…their own stuff, I don’t think everyone will want to share cars with everyone else.
    • With electric also comes autonomous (self-driving) cars. The technology is almost there (some would argue that it is already there) for fully autonomous driving.  Over 50,000 people are killed in traffic accidents each year in the US alone.  Self-driving cars will have a fraction of the accidents, and we are going to find that those accidents were largely caused by human drivers not the autonomous vehicles.  Very quickly, mothers, politicians, widows and widowers, and daily commuters will give up their driving freedoms in exchange for safety and predictability.  Then, driving your own car will become illegal.
  • Investment opportunities
    • Big oil is on top of some of this but not all and won’t be able to move fast enough. Oil use will peak in 2021 and plummet. Short Big Oil stocks starting around 2020, keep the short (especially on the gas station owners).
    • Solar – Solar is going to get cheaper but more important to daily use. More and more commercial buildings are going to add charging stations to their list of property amenities, and the cheapest long-term solution is solar.
    • Charging and battery companies – The demand for batteries and new battery technology is going to increase dramatically (both for major storage and transportation). Batteries will get exponentially more efficient, lighter, and more reliable.
    • Automakers – I have mixed thoughts on this. Auto sales will rise significantly with the move to all electric vehicles, however, these automobiles are going to last a lot longer and require less service.  This means fewer cars sold in the future.  They will have to morph and change their business model into more of a service model, or they will manufacture themselves out of existence.
    • Car dealerships are dead. Today, their margins on auto sales are so small, they make most of their profits in service and used vehicles.  Used vehicles will go away, and the needs for service on all electric vehicles is going to decrease by 85%.
    • Auto parts stores and collision centers are dead. See above
    • Auto insurance is dead. This will have a major impact on financial markets.  As the need for insurance decreases, liquidity from those insurance companies will dry up.  It will be replaced by spending and investing in other areas, but the long-term predictable float of Gieco is going to be dead without a move into home, general liability, or other insurance lines.
    • Trucking is dead (as we know it) – There will be no more long-haul truck drivers. Autonomous vehicles will maneuver themselves at all hours of the day and night with maximum efficiency and safety.  By the way, this goes for any “driven” profession including farming, fork-lift operators, shipping, bus transportation, and ultimately flight and air travel.
    • Software will become more central – All of these modes of transportation will need software and data that drives, updates, communicates and learns. More about this in the technology section.

Want to read more projections and predictions? Read about Accounting and Finance, Science and Geopolitics.

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